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Climate change is impacting people’s lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia are evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust—they are able to simultaneously consider many climate change models—giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Crop planning; Water resource management; Food security; Climate change; Robust optimisation; Predictive model
Research Division:	Information and Computing Sciences
Research Group:	Artificial intelligence
Research Field:	Evolutionary computation
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Montgomery, J (Dr James Montgomery)
ID Code:	155559
Year Published:	2023
Deposited By:	Information and Communication Technology
Deposited On:	2023-03-01
Last Modified:	2023-03-01
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