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Use of clinical scores in young Australian adults for prediction of atherosclerosis in middle age
Citation
Huynh, Q and Venn, AJ and Magnussen, CG and Yang, H and Venkataraman, P and Dwyer, T and Marwick, TH, Use of clinical scores in young Australian adults for prediction of atherosclerosis in middle age, BMC Cardiovascular Disorders, 23 Article 63. ISSN 1471-2261 (2023) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International International (CC BY 4.0) License, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format.
DOI: doi:10.1186/s12872-023-03060-x
Abstract
We sought to apply a simple cardiovascular health tool not requiring laboratory tests (the Fuster-BEWAT score, FBS) to
predict subclinical atherosclerosis. This study included 2657 young adults (<40 years of age). In the prognostic group
(n=894, followed for 13 years until aged 40–50 years at follow-up), the primary outcome was presence of carotid
plaque measured by carotid ultrasound at follow-up. Of these 894 participants, 86 (9.6%) had unilateral, and 23 participants (2.6%) had bilateral, carotid plaques at follow-up. The baseline FBS was predictive of carotid plaque at follow-up
[odds ratio OR=0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.96) per 1-SD increase in FBS], similar to prediction from Pooled Cohort Equation
[PCE, OR=0.72 (0.61–0.85) per 1-SD decrease in PCE]. Risk scores at baseline predicted outcomes more strongly than
those at follow-up, and did so independently of any changes over 13 years of follow-up. Similar discrimination for
predicting carotid plaque after 13 years was found for both baseline FBS [C-statistic=0.68 (95% CI 0.62–0.74)] and
PCE [C-statistic=0.69 (95% CI 0.63–0.75)]. Application of this FBS prognostic information to a contemporary cohort
of 1763 young adults anticipates the future development of plaque in 305 (17.3%), especially in the 1494 participants
(85%) with≤2 metrics of ideal health. In conclusions, FBS measured in young adulthood predicted atherosclerosis
13 years later in middle age, independent of score changes over the follow-up period, emphasizing the importance of
early damage to vascular health. FBS may be a simple and feasible risk score for engaging low-risk young people with
reduction of future cardiovascular risk.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | clinical score, atherosclerosis, atherosclerotic risk, carotid plaque, Fuster BEWAT score, ideal cardiovascular health score, pooled cohort equation |
| Research Division: | Biomedical and Clinical Sciences |
| Research Group: | Cardiovascular medicine and haematology |
| Research Field: | Cardiology (incl. cardiovascular diseases) |
| Objective Division: | Health |
| Objective Group: | Clinical health |
| Objective Field: | Prevention of human diseases and conditions |
| UTAS Author: | Huynh, Q (Dr Quan Huynh) |
| UTAS Author: | Venn, AJ (Professor Alison Venn) |
| UTAS Author: | Magnussen, CG (Associate Professor Costan Magnussen) |
| UTAS Author: | Yang, H (Ms Hilda Yang) |
| UTAS Author: | Dwyer, T (Professor Terry Dwyer) |
| UTAS Author: | Marwick, TH (Professor Tom Marwick) |
| ID Code: | 155439 |
| Year Published: | 2023 |
| Deposited By: | Menzies Institute for Medical Research |
| Deposited On: | 2023-02-20 |
| Last Modified: | 2023-03-21 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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