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Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates
Citation
Liu, K and Harrison, MT and Yan, H and Liu, LL and Meinke, HB and Hoogenboom, G and Wang, B and Peng, B and Guan, K and Jaegermeyr, J and Wang, E and Zhang, F and Yin, X and Archontoulis, S and Nie, L and Badea, A and Man, J and Wallach, D and Zhao, J and Benjumea, AB and Fahad, S and Tian, X and Wang, W and Toa, F and Zhang, Z and Rotter, R and Yuan, Y and Zhu, M and Dai, P and Nie, J and Yang, Y and Zhang, Y and Zhou, Meixue, Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates, Nature Communications, 14, (1) Article 765. ISSN 2041-1723 (2023) [Refereed Article]
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DOI: doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4
Abstract
Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3-11% historically to 10-20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Climate crisis; wheat; food security; sustainability; adaptation; mitigation; barley; climate change; model; global climate model; Nature; waterlogging; soil; extreme rainfall; grain; yield; anoxia; rice; maize; modeling; mitigation; land-use |
| Research Division: | Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences |
| Research Group: | Agriculture, land and farm management |
| Research Field: | Agricultural systems analysis and modelling |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Adaptation to climate change |
| Objective Field: | Climate change adaptation measures (excl. ecosystem) |
| UTAS Author: | Liu, K (Dr Ke Liu) |
| UTAS Author: | Harrison, MT (Associate Professor Matthew Harrison) |
| UTAS Author: | Meinke, HB (Professor Holger Meinke) |
| UTAS Author: | Zhou, Meixue (Professor Meixue Zhou) |
| ID Code: | 155323 |
| Year Published: | 2023 |
| Deposited By: | TIA - Research Institute |
| Deposited On: | 2023-02-11 |
| Last Modified: | 2023-02-12 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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