eCite Digital Repository

Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning Author links open overlay panelning

Citation

Curnin, S and Brooks, B and Brooks, B, Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning Author links open overlay panelning, Futures pp. 1-13. ISSN 0016-3287 (2022) [Refereed Article]


Preview
PDF
Pending copyright assessment - Request a copy
670Kb
  

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103057

Abstract

Recent crises have demonstrated that modern organisations require strong foresight capabilities, such as scenario planning, to provide decision makers with a means of managing unpredictable situations and avoiding catastrophic consequences. Despite the success of scenario planning in some large corporations, there has been a distinct lack of empirical research activity surrounding scenario planning, especially in the context of crisis management. This paper takes a methodologically rigorous approach by reporting on an empirical project that sought to understand the role of creativity and decision-making as drivers for scenario planning quality during a series of crisis exercises. The project applied a pre- and post-experimental design that used a training intervention to elicit a change in aspects of scenario planning quality during a series of simulated crises. A significant change was elicited and the role creativity and decision-making play in that change has been articulated. This paper seeks to contribute to the existing empirical futures studies research and stimulate other futures scholars to consider additional methods to enhance the scientific rigour of empirical research in this field and explore the drivers and measures of scenario planning quality.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:scenario planning, crisis management, foresight, creativity, decision making
Research Division:Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
Research Field:Disaster and emergency management
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in human society
UTAS Author:Curnin, S (Associate Professor Steven Curnin)
UTAS Author:Brooks, B (Associate Professor Benjamin Brooks)
UTAS Author:Brooks, B (Mr Oliver Brooks)
ID Code:154919
Year Published:2022
Deposited By:Office of the School of Social Sciences
Deposited On:2023-01-18
Last Modified:2023-01-19
Downloads:0

Repository Staff Only: item control page