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Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning Author links open overlay panelning
Citation
Curnin, S and Brooks, B and Brooks, B, Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning Author links open overlay panelning, Futures pp. 1-13. ISSN 0016-3287 (2022) [Refereed Article]
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DOI: doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103057
Abstract
Recent crises have demonstrated that modern organisations require strong foresight capabilities,
such as scenario planning, to provide decision makers with a means of managing unpredictable
situations and avoiding catastrophic consequences. Despite the success of scenario planning in
some large corporations, there has been a distinct lack of empirical research activity surrounding
scenario planning, especially in the context of crisis management. This paper takes a methodologically rigorous approach by reporting on an empirical project that sought to understand the
role of creativity and decision-making as drivers for scenario planning quality during a series of
crisis exercises. The project applied a pre- and post-experimental design that used a training
intervention to elicit a change in aspects of scenario planning quality during a series of simulated
crises. A significant change was elicited and the role creativity and decision-making play in that
change has been articulated. This paper seeks to contribute to the existing empirical futures
studies research and stimulate other futures scholars to consider additional methods to enhance
the scientific rigour of empirical research in this field and explore the drivers and measures of
scenario planning quality.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | scenario planning, crisis management, foresight, creativity, decision making |
| Research Division: | Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services |
| Research Group: | Strategy, management and organisational behaviour |
| Research Field: | Disaster and emergency management |
| Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
| Objective Group: | Expanding knowledge |
| Objective Field: | Expanding knowledge in human society |
| UTAS Author: | Curnin, S (Associate Professor Steven Curnin) |
| UTAS Author: | Brooks, B (Associate Professor Benjamin Brooks) |
| UTAS Author: | Brooks, B (Mr Oliver Brooks) |
| ID Code: | 154919 |
| Year Published: | 2022 |
| Deposited By: | Office of the School of Social Sciences |
| Deposited On: | 2023-01-18 |
| Last Modified: | 2023-01-19 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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