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An ecological risk assessment for managing and predicting trophic shifts in estuarine ecosystems using a Bayesian network
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 15:28 authored by Karlie McDonaldKarlie McDonald, Tighe, M, Ryder, DSEstuaries are dynamic systems at the transition between freshwater and marine ecosystems. In this study, a spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian network (BN) was developed for a tidally connected estuary in southeastern Australia. The BN provides an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the probability of a shift to a eutrophied state based on markers of pelagic and benthic primary production. The model was created to provide an initial framework of system knowledge based on empirical data, with the intention that the model and its linkages be iteratively developed as more information becomes available. The BN was investigated for its potential to predict trophic shifts and provide a framework for evidence-based decision making. Model assessment was conducted through both sensitivity analysis and scenario tests. Through evaluation and updating, the BN can provide information on the key nutrients and bio-physical mechanisms regulating changes in trophic state in estuarine ecosystems.
History
Publication title
Environmental Modelling and SoftwareVolume
85Pagination
202-216ISSN
1364-8152Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Elsevier Sci LtdPlace of publication
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox5 1GbRights statement
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.Repository Status
- Restricted