Quantitative modelling of shipping freight rates: developments in the past 20 years
Ke, L and Liu, Q and Ng, AKY and Shi, W, Quantitative modelling of shipping freight rates: developments in the past 20 years, Maritime Policy and Management pp. 1-19. ISSN 0308-8839 (2022) [Refereed Article]
Understanding the determination mechanism and dynamics of shipping
freight rates has significant implications for practitioners, economists, and
regulators of maritime transport. This paper systematically reviews the
relevant papers on shipping freight rate published between 2000 and
2019. Specifically, it provides empirical insights including the major influencing factors of shipping freight rates and differences among the shipping sectors, and discusses the dominant methods and their applicability,
strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities for new methods.
Furthermore, the omissions and limitations in methods are explored to
identify the research gaps and set a future research agenda. It is found
that there is a strong focus on temporal dynamics with a wide range of
modelling methods applied, while discussion on cross-sectional dynamics
on how shipping freight rates are determined by vessel characteristics,
contract terms, market competition, etc., is limited. Besides, the collaboration network analysis shows that more knowledge sharing and crossdiscipline collaboration efforts can create potential for more inspired
insights with advanced methods in this field.