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Influence-based consequence assessment of subsea pipeline failure under stochastic degradation


Adumene, S and Islam, R and Dick, IF and Zarei, E and Inegiyemiema, M and Yang, M, Influence-based consequence assessment of subsea pipeline failure under stochastic degradation, Energies, 15, (20) pp. 1-10. ISSN 1996-1073 (2022) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

DOI: doi:10.3390/en15207460


The complexity of corrosion mechanisms in harsh offshore environments poses safety and integrity challenges to oil and gas operations. Exploring the unstable interactions and complex mechanisms required an advanced probabilistic model. The current study presents the development of a probabilistic approach for a consequence-based assessment of subsea pipelines exposed to complex corrosion mechanisms. The Bayesian Probabilistic Network (BPN) is applied to structurally learn the propagation and interactions among under-deposit corrosion and microbial corrosion for the failure state prediction of the asset. A two-step consequences analysis is inferred from the failure state to establish the failure impact on the environment, lives, and economic losses. The essence is to understand how the interactions between the under-deposit and microbial corrosion mechanismsí nodes influence the likely number of spills on the environment. The associated cost of failure consequences is predicted using the expected utility decision theory. The proposed approach is tested on a corroding subsea pipeline (API X60) to predict the degree of impact of the failed state on the assetís likely consequences. At the worst degradation state, the failure consequence expected utility gives 1.0822 ◊ 108 USD. The influence-based model provides a prognostic tool for proactive integrity management planning for subsea systems exposed to stochastic degradation in harsh offshore environments.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:subsea pipeline, under-deposit corrosion, influential risk factors, Bayesian probabilistic network, microbial corrosion, expected utility decision theory
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Marine engineering
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water transport
Objective Field:International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)
UTAS Author:Islam, R (Dr T M Rabiul Islam)
UTAS Author:Yang, M (Associate Professor Ming Yang)
ID Code:153897
Year Published:2022
Deposited By:Seafaring and Maritime Operations
Deposited On:2022-10-13
Last Modified:2022-11-02
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