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Evaluating models for predicting microclimates across sparsely vegetated and topographically diverse ecosystems


Baker, DJ and Dickson, CR and Bergstrom, DM and Whinam, J and Maclean, IMD and McGeoch, MA, Evaluating models for predicting microclimates across sparsely vegetated and topographically diverse ecosystems, Diversity and Distributions, 27, (11) pp. 2093-2103. ISSN 1366-9516 (2021) [Refereed Article]

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2021. The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

DOI: doi:10.1111/ddi.13398


Aim: Microclimate information is often crucial for understanding ecological patterns and processes, including under climate change, but is typically absent from ecological and biogeographic studies owing to difficulties in obtaining microclimate data. Recent advances in microclimate modelling, however, suggest that microclimate conditions can now be predicted anywhere at any time using hybrid physically and empirically based models. Here, we test these methods across a sparsely vegetated and topographically diverse sub-Antarctic island ecosystem (Macquarie Island). Innovation: Microclimate predictions were generated at a height of 4cm above the surface on a 100x100m elevation grid across the island for the snow-free season (Oct-Mar), with models driven by either climate reanalysis data (CRA) or CRA data augmented with meteorological observations from the island's automatic weather station (AWS+CRA). These models were compared with predictions from a simple lapse rate model (LR), where an elevational adjustment was applied to hourly temperature measurements from the AWS. Prediction errors tended to be lower for AWS+CRA-driven models, particularly when compared to the CRA-driven models. The AWS+CRA and LR models had similar prediction errors averaged across the season for Tmin and Tmean, but prediction errors for Tmax were much smaller for the former. The within-site correlation between observed and predicted daily Tmean was on average >0.8 in all months for AWS+CRA predictions and >0.7 in all months for LR predictions, but consistently lower for CRA predictions. Main conclusions: Prediction of microclimate conditions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales is now possible usi 1000 ng hybrid models, and these often provide added value over lapse rate models, particularly for daily extremes and when driven by in situ meteorological observations. These advances will help add the microclimate dimension to ecological and biogeographic studies and aid delivery of climate change-resilient conservation planning in climate change-exposed ecosystems.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:biogeography, islands, microclima, microrefugia, NicheMapR, polar, threatened ecosystem
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental management
Research Field:Environmental assessment and monitoring
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Other environmental management
Objective Field:Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Whinam, J (Dr Jennie Whinam)
ID Code:152706
Year Published:2021
Deposited By:Mathematics
Deposited On:2022-08-23
Last Modified:2022-11-21

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