Microsimulation model for the health economic evaluation of osteoporosis interventions: study protocol

Introduction: Osteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease that is characterised by reduced bone strength and increased fracture risk. Osteoporosis-related fractures impose enormous disease and economic burden to the society. Although many treatments and health interventions are proven effective to prevent fractures, health economic evaluation adds evidence to their economic merits. Computer simulation modelling is a useful approach to extrapolate clinical and economic outcomes from clinical trials and it is increasingly used in health economic evaluation. Many osteoporosis health economic models have been developed in the past decades; however, they are limited to academic use and there are no publicly accessible health economic models of osteoporosis.

Methods and analysis: We will develop the Australian osteoporosis health economic model based on our previously published microsimulation model of osteoporosis in the Chinese population. The development of the model will follow the recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation. The model will be a state-transition semi-Markov model with memory. Clinical parameters in the model will be mainly obtained from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the health economic parameters will be collected from the Australian arm of the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study. Model transparency and validates will be tested using the recommendations from Good Research Practices in Modelling Task Forces. The model will be used in economic evaluations of osteoporosis interventions including pharmaceutical treatments and primary care interventions. A user-friendly graphical user interface will be developed, which will connect the user to the calculation engine and the results will be generated. The user interface will facilitate the use of our model by people in different sectors.

Ethics and dissemination:No ethical approval is needed for this study. Results of the model validation and future economic evaluation studies will be submitted to journals. The user interface of the health economic model will be publicly available online accompanied with a user manual.