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Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 11:27 authored by Stokes, CR, Abram, NJ, Bentley, MJ, Edwards, TL, England, MH, Annie FoppertAnnie Foppert, Jamieson, SSR, Jones, RS, Matt KingMatt King, Lenaerts, JTM, Medley, B, Miles, BWJ, Paxman, Guy JG, Ritz, C, van de Flierdt, T, Whitehouse, PLThe East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.
Funding
Australian Research Council
Australian National University
Curtin University
University of Canberra
University of Melbourne
University of New South Wales
University of South Australia
University of Western Australia
History
Publication title
NatureVolume
608Issue
7922Pagination
275-287ISSN
1476-4687Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
© Springer Nature Limited 2022Repository Status
- Restricted