The impact of variable ocean temperatures on Totten Glacier stability and discharge
A major uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise is the ice sheet response timescales to ocean warming. Totten Glacier drains a region containing 3.9 m global sea level equivalent and has been losing mass over recent decades. We use an ice sheet model coupled to an ice-shelf cavity combined ocean box and plume model to investigate Totten's response to variable ocean forcing. Totten's grounding line is stable for a limited range of ocean temperatures near current observations (i.e., −0.95°C to −0.75°C), with topography influencing the discharge periodicity. For increases of ≥0.2°C in temperatures beyond this range, grounding line retreat occurs. Variable ocean forcing can reduce retreat relative to constant forcing, and different variability amplitudes can cause centennial-scale delays in retreat through interactions with topography. Our results highlight the need for long-term ocean state observations and to include forcing variability in ice sheet model simulations of future change.
History
Publication title
Geophysical Research LettersVolume
48Issue
10Article number
e2020GL091790Number
e2020GL091790Pagination
1-11ISSN
0094-8276Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Amer Geophysical UnionPlace of publication
2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009Rights statement
2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Repository Status
- Restricted