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Approach to risk performance reasoning with hidden Markov model for bauxite shipping process safety by handy carriers

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 09:01 authored by Wu, J, Yuting Jin, Hu, SP, Jiangang FeiJiangang Fei, Zhang, Y
An approach based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is proposed for risk performance reasoning (RPR) for the bauxite shipping process by Handy carriers. The unobservable (hidden) state process in the approach aims to model the underlying risk performance, while the observation process was formed from the time series of risk factors. Within the framework, the log-likelihood probability was used as the measure of similarity between historical and current data of risk reasoning factors. Based on scalar quantization regulation and risk performance quantization regulation, the RPR approach with different step sizes was conducted on the operational case, the performance of which was evaluated in terms of effectiveness and accuracy. The reasoning performance of the HMM was tested during the validation period using three simulated scenarios and one accident scenario. The results showed significant improvement in the reasoning capacity, and satisfactory performance for numerical risk reasoning and categorical performance reasoning. The proposed model is able to provide a reference for risk performance monitoring and threat pre-warning during the bauxite shipping process.

History

Publication title

Applied Sciences

Volume

10

Issue

4

Pagination

1-21

ISSN

2076-3417

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

Universitatea Politehnica din Bucuresti

Place of publication

Switzerland

Rights statement

© 2020 by the authors. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)

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