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Approach to risk performance reasoning with hidden Markov model for bauxite shipping process safety by handy carriers


Wu, J and Jin, Y and Hu, SP and Fei, J and Zhang, Y, Approach to risk performance reasoning with hidden Markov model for bauxite shipping process safety by handy carriers, Applied Sciences, 10, (4) pp. 1-21. ISSN 2076-3417 (2020) [Refereed Article]

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2020 by the authors. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (

DOI: doi:10.3390/app10041269


An approach based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is proposed for risk performance reasoning (RPR) for the bauxite shipping process by Handy carriers. The unobservable (hidden) state process in the approach aims to model the underlying risk performance, while the observation process was formed from the time series of risk factors. Within the framework, the log-likelihood probability was used as the measure of similarity between historical and current data of risk reasoning factors. Based on scalar quantization regulation and risk performance quantization regulation, the RPR approach with different step sizes was conducted on the operational case, the performance of which was evaluated in terms of effectiveness and accuracy. The reasoning performance of the HMM was tested during the validation period using three simulated scenarios and one accident scenario. The results showed significant improvement in the reasoning capacity, and satisfactory performance for numerical risk reasoning and categorical performance reasoning. The proposed model is able to provide a reference for risk performance monitoring and threat pre-warning during the bauxite shipping process.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:handy bauxite carrier, hidden Markov model, performance evaluation, process safety, risk performance reasoning
Research Division:Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Research Field:Maritime transportation and freight services
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water transport
Objective Field:International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)
UTAS Author:Wu, J (Mr Jianjun Wu)
UTAS Author:Jin, Y (Mr Yuting Jin)
UTAS Author:Hu, SP (Professor Shenping Hu)
UTAS Author:Fei, J (Associate Professor Jiangang Fei)
UTAS Author:Zhang, Y (Mr Yuanqiang Zhang)
ID Code:150775
Year Published:2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:3
Deposited By:Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:2022-06-29
Last Modified:2022-09-15
Downloads:4 View Download Statistics

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