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A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations
The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.
History
Publication title
Maritime Policy and Management: An International Journal of Shipping and Port ResearchVolume
47Issue
6Pagination
778-796ISSN
0308-8839Department/School
Australian Maritime CollegePublisher
RoutledgePlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
Copyright 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis GroupRepository Status
- Restricted