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A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations


Nguyen, S, A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations, Maritime Policy and Management: An International Journal of Shipping and Port Research, 47, (6) pp. 778-796. ISSN 0308-8839 (2020) [Refereed Article]

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DOI: doi:10.1080/03088839.2020.1729432


The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:risk assessment; container shipping operation;Bayesian network; evidential reasoning; risk mapping
Research Division:Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Research Field:Maritime transportation and freight services
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water transport
Objective Field:International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)
UTAS Author:Nguyen, S (Mr Son Nguyen)
ID Code:150561
Year Published:2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:8
Deposited By:Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:2022-06-20
Last Modified:2022-09-28

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