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Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse


Holsman, KK and Haynie, AC and Hollowed, AB and Reum, JCP and Aydin, K and Hermann, AJ and Cheng, W and Faig, A and Ianelli, JN and Kearney, KA and Punt, AE, Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse, Nature Communications, 11, (1) Article 4579. ISSN 2041-1723 (2020) [Refereed Article]

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DOI: doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3


Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (20752100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.12.3 C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:fisheries management, climate change, ecosystem based fisheries management
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Fisheries management
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Mitigation of climate change
Objective Field:Climate change mitigation strategies
UTAS Author:Reum, JCP (Dr Jonathan Reum)
ID Code:150357
Year Published:2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:37
Deposited By:Fisheries and Aquaculture
Deposited On:2022-06-09
Last Modified:2022-06-09

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