Stop ignoring map uncertainty in biodiversity science and conservation policy

Halting the unprecedented loss of biodiversity is one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Area-based management frameworks, such as national parks or marine protected areas, are a popular tool to combat threats to biodiversity but require comprehensive information on the spatial distribution of biodiversity to properly instigate. Recent advances in observation technologies, data sharing and modelling techniques mean that comprehensive predictive maps of the distribution of species, populations, assemblages and bioregions can now be readily produced. However, despite ongoing discussion about the need to address uncertainty in species and biodiversity distribution modelling, and the effect that ignoring uncertainty may have on evaluating risk (and ultimately on conservation outcomes), the uncertainty of predictions is still inadequately communicated by the research community.