149935 - Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode.pdf (2.64 MB)
Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode with oceanic variability and predictability
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 07:26 authored by Lou, J, O'Kane, TJ, Neil HolbrookNeil HolbrookWhile Pacific climate variability is largely understood based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific focused Pacific decadal oscillation and the basin-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation, the role of the South Pacific, including atmospheric drivers and cross-scale interactions, has received less attention. Using reanalysis data and model outputs, here we propose a paradigm for South Pacific climate variability whereby the atmospheric Pacific- South American (PSA) mode acts to excite multiscale spatiotemporal responses in the upper South Pacific Ocean. We find the second mid-troposphere PSA pattern is fundamental to stochastically generate a mid-latitude sea surface temperature quadrupole pattern that represents the optimal precursor for the predictability and evolution of both the South Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO several seasons in advance. We find that the PSA mode is the key driver of oceanic variability in the South Pacific subtropics that generates a potentially predictable climate signal linked to the tropics.
History
Publication title
Communications Earth & EnvironmentArticle number
223Number
223Pagination
1-8ISSN
2662-4435Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
© 2021. The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Repository Status
- Open