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Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode with oceanic variability and predictability


Lou, J and O'Kane, TJ and Holbrook, NJ, Linking the atmospheric Pacific-South American mode with oceanic variability and predictability, Communications Earth & Environment, 2 Article 223. ISSN 2662-4435 (2021) [Refereed Article]

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© 2021. The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

DOI: doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00295-4


While Pacific climate variability is largely understood based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific focused Pacific decadal oscillation and the basin-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation, the role of the South Pacific, including atmospheric drivers and cross-scale interactions, has received less attention. Using reanalysis data and model outputs, here we propose a paradigm for South Pacific climate variability whereby the atmospheric Pacific- South American (PSA) mode acts to excite multiscale spatiotemporal responses in the upper South Pacific Ocean. We find the second mid-troposphere PSA pattern is fundamental to stochastically generate a mid-latitude sea surface temperature quadrupole pattern that represents the optimal precursor for the predictability and evolution of both the South Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO several seasons in advance. We find that the PSA mode is the key driver of oceanic variability in the South Pacific subtropics that generates a potentially predictable climate signal linked to the tropics.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:atmosphere, Pacific-South American mode, oceanic variability, predictability, ENSO
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Understanding climate change not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Lou, J (Mr Jiale LOU)
UTAS Author:Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook)
ID Code:149935
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:4
Deposited By:Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:2022-04-29
Last Modified:2022-08-24
Downloads:6 View Download Statistics

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