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Ocean-sea ice processes and their role on multi-month predictability of Antarctic sea ice


Libera, S and Hobbs, W and Klocker, A and Meyer, A and Matear, R, Ocean-sea ice processes and their role on multi-month predictability of Antarctic sea ice, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, (8) Article e2021GL097047. ISSN 0094-8276 (2022) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright Statement

2022. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) License, ( which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

DOI: doi:10.1029/2021GL097047


Antarctic sea ice is a critical component of the climate system and a vital habitat for Southern Ocean ecosystems. Understanding the underlying physical processes and improving Antarctic sea ice prediction is of broad interest. Using the model data, we investigate sea ice and upper ocean predictability at interannual timescales in the Weddell Sea region. We find that oceanic predictability is largely confined to the Winter Water layer and responds to seasonal modifications of the water column, mainly driven by sea ice processes. Predictability depends not only on the depth of the Winter Water layer, but also on how strongly stratified its base is. Predictability is lost when warm Circumpolar Deep Water with no sea ice-related memory entrains into the mixed layer. We show the strong dependence of sea ice predictability on the local upper ocean vertical structure, which suggests that both are likely to change in a warming climate.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Antarctic, sea ice
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments
Objective Field:Antarctic and Southern Ocean oceanic processes
UTAS Author:Libera, S (Ms Stephy Libera)
UTAS Author:Hobbs, W (Dr Will Hobbs)
UTAS Author:Meyer, A (Dr Amelie Meyer)
ID Code:149897
Year Published:2022
Deposited By:Australian Antarctic Program Partnership
Deposited On:2022-04-26
Last Modified:2022-10-27
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