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Climate adaptation, drought susceptibility, and genomic-informed predictions of future climate refugia for the Australian forest tree Eucalyptus globulus

Citation

Butler, JB and Harrison, PA and Vaillancourt, RE and Steane, DA and Tibbits, JFG and Potts, BM, Climate adaptation, drought susceptibility, and genomic-informed predictions of future climate refugia for the Australian forest tree Eucalyptus globulus, Forests, 13, (4) Article 575. ISSN 1999-4907 (2022) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

DOI: doi:10.3390/f13040575

Abstract

Understanding the capacity of forest tree species to adapt to climate change is of increasing importance for managing forest genetic resources. Through a genomics approach, we modelled spatial variation in climate adaptation within the Australian temperate forest tree Eucalyptus globulus, identified putative climate drivers of this genomic variation, and predicted locations of future climate refugia and populations at-risk of future maladaptation. Using 812,158 SNPs across 130 individuals from 30 populations (i.e., localities) spanning the speciesí natural range, a gradientForest algorithm found 1177 SNPs associated with locality variation in home-site climate (climate-SNPs), putatively linking them to climate adaptation. Very few climate-SNPs were associated with population-level variation in drought susceptibility, signalling the multi-faceted nature and complexity of climate adaptation. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed 24% of the climate-SNP variation could be explained by annual precipitation, isothermality, and maximum temperature of the warmest month. Spatial predictions of the RDA climate vectors associated with climate-SNPs allowed mapping of genomically informed climate selective surfaces across the speciesí range under contemporary and projected future climates. These surfaces suggest over 50% of the current distribution of E. globulus will be outside the modelled adaptive range by 2070 and at risk of climate maladaptation. Such surfaces present a new integrated approach for natural resource managers to capture adaptive genetic variation and plan translocations in the face of climate change.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Eucalyptus globulus, climate adaptation, drought adaptation,genotype environment association, GEA study, gene pool conservation, selection surfaces, genomic vulnerability
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Bioinformatics and computational biology
Research Field:Genomics and transcriptomics
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the biological sciences
UTAS Author:Butler, JB (Dr Jakob Butler)
UTAS Author:Harrison, PA (Dr Peter Harrison)
UTAS Author:Vaillancourt, RE (Professor Rene Vaillancourt)
UTAS Author:Steane, DA (Dr Dorothy Steane)
UTAS Author:Potts, BM (Professor Brad Potts)
ID Code:149700
Year Published:2022
Deposited By:Plant Science
Deposited On:2022-04-07
Last Modified:2022-05-04
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