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A delay equation model for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation


Falkena, SKJ and Quinn, C and Sieber, J and Dijkstra, HA, A delay equation model for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 477, (2246) Article 20200659. ISSN 1364-5021 (2021) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2021 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

DOI: doi:10.1098/rspa.2020.0659


A new technique to derive delay models from systems of partial differential equations, based on the Mori–Zwanzig (MZ) formalism, is used to derive a delay-difference equation model for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The MZ formalism gives a rewriting of the original system of equations, which contains a memory term. This memory term can be related to a delay term in a resulting delay equation. Here, the technique is applied to an idealized, but spatially extended, model of the AMO. The resulting delay-difference model is of a different type than the delay differential model which has been used to describe the El Nińo Southern Oscillation. In addition to this model, which can also be obtained by integration along characteristics, error terms for a smoothing approximation of the model have been derived from the MZ formalism. Our new method of deriving delay models from spatially extended models has a large potential to use delay models to study a range of climate variability phenomena.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Mori–Zwanzig, delay model, reduction methods, conceptual models
Research Division:Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:Applied mathematics
Research Field:Dynamical systems in applications
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Quinn, C (Dr Courtney Quinn)
ID Code:149469
Year Published:2021
Deposited By:Mathematics
Deposited On:2022-03-31
Last Modified:2022-05-24

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