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Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the Southern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022


Massonnet, F and Reid, P and Lieser, J and Bitz, C and Fyfe, J and Hobbs, W, Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the Southern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022, EGU General Assembly 2022 Book of Abstracts, 23-27 May 2022, Vienna, Austria & Online, pp. EGU22-7219. (2022) [Conference Extract]

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DOI: doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7219


The SIPN South project is an international, coordinated initiative endorsed by the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP), that aims at identifying the skill of current seasonal predictions of sea ice around Antarctica. Here, we review and analyze the results of five years of predictions of summer sea ice conducted by 20 groups since 2017, having contributed together more than 1000 forecasts. A wide range of approaches is considered, ranging from statistical data-driven to dynamical process-based models. We evaluate the ability of the forecasts to reproduce observed sea ice area at the circumpolar and regional levels and their skill relative to trivial forecasts (climatology, persistence). We find that a substantial spread exists already at day one in the dynamical forecasts, pointing at problems with the initialization. We also find that the forecasts based on statistical modeling perform generally better than forecasts based on dynamical modeling.

Item Details

Item Type:Conference Extract
Keywords:SIPN-South, sea-ice prediction, sea-ice forecasting, Southern Ocean, sea-ice modelling
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Research Field:Glaciology
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments
Objective Field:Antarctic and Southern Ocean ice dynamics
UTAS Author:Reid, P (Dr Phillip Reid)
UTAS Author:Lieser, J (Dr Jan Lieser)
UTAS Author:Hobbs, W (Dr Will Hobbs)
ID Code:149343
Year Published:2022
Deposited By:Directorate
Deposited On:2022-03-26
Last Modified:2022-03-28

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