149044 - Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years.pdf (1.55 MB)
Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 06:07 authored by Tessa VanceTessa Vance, Kiem, AS, Lenneke JongLenneke Jong, Jason RobertsJason Roberts, Christopher PlummerChristopher Plummer, Andrew MoyAndrew Moy, Mark Curran, Tasman van OmmenTasman van OmmenThe Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.
Funding
Australian Research Council
History
Publication title
Communications Earth & EnvironmentArticle number
33Number
33Pagination
1-9ISSN
2662-4435Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Repository Status
- Open