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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems


Tittensor, DP and Novaglio, C and Harrison, CS and Heneghan, RF and Barrier, N and Bianchi, D and Bopp, L and Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Britten, GL and Buchner, M and Cheung, WWL and Christensen, V and Coll, M and Dunne, JP and Eddy, TD and Everett, JD and Fernandes-Salvador, JA and Fulton, EA and Galbraith, ED and Gascuel, D and Guiet, J and John, JG and Link, JS and Lotze, HK and Maury, O and Ortega-Cisneros, K and Palacios-Abrantes, J and Petrik, CM and du Pontavice, H and Rault, J and Richardson, AJ and Shannon, L and Shin, YJ and Steenbeek, J and Stock, CA and Blanchard, JL, Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems, Nature Climate Change, 11 pp. 973-981. ISSN 1758-678X (2021) [Refereed Article]


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Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

DOI: doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9


Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, ecosystem models, climate models
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Climate change science
Research Field:Climate change science not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Marine systems and management
Objective Field:Rehabilitation or conservation of marine environments
UTAS Author:Novaglio, C (Dr Camilla Novaglio)
UTAS Author:Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton)
UTAS Author:Blanchard, JL (Professor Julia Blanchard)
ID Code:147546
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:40
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2021-11-08
Last Modified:2021-12-21
Downloads:10 View Download Statistics

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