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Temporal trends in the incidence rates of keratinocyte carcinomas from 1978 to 2018 in Tasmania, Australia: a population‑based study


Silva Ragaini, B and Blizzard, L and Newman, L and Stokes, B and Albion, T and Venn, A, Temporal trends in the incidence rates of keratinocyte carcinomas from 1978 to 2018 in Tasmania, Australia: a population‑based study, Discover Oncology, 12 ISSN 1868-8497 (2021) [Refereed Article]

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© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.

DOI: doi:10.1007/s12672-021-00426-5


Objectives: We described incidence trends of keratinocyte carcinomas (KCs)—namely basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)—in the Australian state of Tasmania.

Methods: We identified histologically confirmed KCs within the Tasmanian Cancer Registry (TCR) and conducted assessments to ensure data quality. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated for first (1985–2018) and annual KCs (1978–2018). Average annual percentage changes were computed using Joinpoint regression models.

Results: The TCR is a reliable source of KC data. A total of 83,536 people were registered with a KC between 1978 and 2018. Age-standardised incidence rates of first KCs increased on average by 3% per annum for BCCs and 4% per annum for SCCs, reaching 363/100,000 and 249/100,000 in 2018, respectively. Age-standardised incidence rates of annual KCs increased on average by 5% per annum for BCCs and 6% per annum for SCCs, up to 891/100,000 and 514/100,000 in 2018, respectively. This increase was steeper for females than males and highest during the late 1980s and early 1990s. A change in trend around 2014 suggested that incidence rates have started to decline.

Conclusion: While the incidence of KCs in Tasmania increased substantially over 41 years, rates have recently plateaued and started to decline. The findings may reflect changes in sun exposure behaviours due to awareness campaigns, but high incidence rates in 2018 indicate that KCs still pose a substantial burden to this population.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:keratinocyte carcinoma, basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, non-melanoma skin cancer, incidence
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Epidemiology
Research Field:Disease surveillance
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Public health (excl. specific population health)
Objective Field:Public health (excl. specific population health) not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Silva Ragaini, B (Ms Bruna Silva Ragaini)
UTAS Author:Blizzard, L (Professor Leigh Blizzard)
UTAS Author:Stokes, B (Mr Brian Stokes)
UTAS Author:Albion, T (Mr Tim Albion)
UTAS Author:Venn, A (Professor Alison Venn)
ID Code:147450
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:6
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2021-11-02
Last Modified:2021-12-23
Downloads:11 View Download Statistics

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