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Development of a life expectancy table for individuals with type 1 diabetes

Citation

Tran-Duy, A and Knight, J and Clarke, PM and Svensson, AM and Eliasson, B and Palmer, AJ, Development of a life expectancy table for individuals with type 1 diabetes, Diabetologia, 64, (10) pp. 2228-2236. ISSN 0012-186X (2021) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright 2021 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

DOI: doi:10.1007/s00125-021-05503-6

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis:Tables reporting life expectancies by common risk factors are available for individuals with type 2 diabetes; however, there is currently no published equivalent for individuals with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to develop a life expectancy table using a recently published simulation model for individuals with type 1 diabetes.

Methods: The simulation model was developed using data from a real-world population of patients with type 1 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. The following six important risk factors were included in the life table: sex; age; current smoking status; BMI; eGFR; and HbA1c. For each of 1024 cells in the life expectancy table, a synthetic cohort containing 1000 individuals was created, with other risk factors assigned values representative of the real-world population. The simulations were executed for all synthetic cohorts and life expectancy for each cell was calculated as mean survival time of the individuals in the respective cohort.

Results: There was a substantial variation in life expectancy across patients with different risk factor levels. Life expectancy of 20-year-old men varied from 29.3 years to 50.6 years, constituting a gap of 21.3 years between those with worst and best risk factor levels. In 20-year-old women, this gap was 18.9 years (life expectancy range 35.0-53.9 years). The variation in life expectancy was a function of the combination of risk factor values, with HbA1c and eGFR consistently showing a negative and positive correlation, respectively, with life expectancy at any level combination of other risk factors. Individuals with the lowest level (20 kg/m2) and highest level of BMI (35 kg/m2) had a lower life expectancy compared with those with a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Non-smokers and women had a higher life expectancy than smokers and men, respectively, with the difference in life expectancy ranging from 0.4 years to 2.7 years between non-smokers and smokers, and from 1.9 years to 5.9 years between women and men, depending on levels of other risk factors.

Conclusions/interpretation: The life expectancy table generated in this study shows a substantial variation in life expectancy across individuals with different modifiable risk factors. The table allows for rapid communications of risk in an easily understood format between healthcare professionals, health economists, researchers, policy makers and patients. Particularly, it supports clinicians in their discussion with patients about the benefits of improving risk factors.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:clinical decision support, computer simulation, decision aids, education, life expectancy, mathematical modelling, mortality, risk factors, Type 1 diabetes, visual tools
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Health services and systems
Research Field:Health informatics and information systems
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Evaluation of health and support services
Objective Field:Evaluation of health outcomes
UTAS Author:Palmer, AJ (Professor Andrew Palmer)
ID Code:147299
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:1
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2021-10-25
Last Modified:2021-11-04
Downloads:5 View Download Statistics

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