146105 - Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.pdf (892.99 kB)
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-21, 01:45 authored by Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouichi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, TJ, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, TL, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Benjamin Galton-FenziBenjamin Galton-Fenzi, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, NR, Gregory, JM, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, MJ, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, NC, Kleiner, T, Kuipers Munneke, P, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscombe, WH, Little, CM, Lowry, DP, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, SF, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Ruckamp, M, Schlegel, N-J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, RS, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, LD, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T, Zwinger, TProjections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
History
Publication title
Geophysical Research LettersVolume
48Issue
16Article number
e2020GL091741Number
e2020GL091741Pagination
1-8ISSN
0094-8276Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Amer Geophysical UnionPlace of publication
2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009Rights statement
© 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Repository Status
- Open