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An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3

Citation

Phipps, SJ and Roberts, JL and King, MA, An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, (8) pp. 5107-5124. ISSN 1991-959X (2021) [Refereed Article]


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Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

DOI: doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021

Abstract

Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:model optimisation, ice sheet model
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Research Field:Glaciology
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the earth sciences
UTAS Author:Phipps, SJ (Dr Steven Phipps)
UTAS Author:King, MA (Professor Matt King)
ID Code:146031
Year Published:2021
Deposited By:Geography and Spatial Science
Deposited On:2021-08-18
Last Modified:2021-09-03
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