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Assessing the informational content of official Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts of wind speed
Citation
Hurn, S and Tian, J and Xu, L, Assessing the informational content of official Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts of wind speed, Economic Record pp. 1-23. ISSN 0013-0249 (2021) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Economic Society of Australia
DOI: doi:10.1111/1475-4932.12627
Abstract
Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decisions. A set of multi-horizon forecasts for wind speed produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 12 weather stations in eastern Australia are examined. The forecasts are examined in terms of the econometric definition of rationality and, as a robustness check, the economic value of the forecasts is also assessed using a cost–loss model. It is demonstrated that while the forecasts exhibit some of the characteristics of rational forecasts, when official testing is introduced forecast rationality is rejected at all the weather stations considered. Furthermore, the behaviour of the forecasts is shown to be very erratic over the course of the day and over forecast horizons. Although there is some evidence that the official forecasts can provide positive economic value, this metric also indicates that there is substantial room for improvement.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Research Division: | Economics |
Research Group: | Applied economics |
Research Field: | Applied economics not elsewhere classified |
Objective Division: | Economic Framework |
Objective Group: | Other economic framework |
Objective Field: | Other economic framework not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Tian, J (Dr Jing Tian) |
ID Code: | 145594 |
Year Published: | 2021 |
Deposited By: | Economics and Finance |
Deposited On: | 2021-07-28 |
Last Modified: | 2021-09-30 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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