144765 - The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.pdf (1.19 MB)
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 23:54 authored by Buntgen, Ulf, Kathryn AllenKathryn Allen, Anchukaitis, KJ, Arseneault, D, Boucher, A, Brauning, A, Chatterjee, S, Cherubini, P, Churakova, OV, Corona, C, Gennaretti, F, Griessinger, J, Guillet, S, Guiot, J, Gunnarson, B, Helama, S, Hochreuther, P, Hughes, MK, Huybers, P, Kirdyanov, AV, Krusic, PJ, Ludescher, J, Meier, WJ-H, Myglan, VS, Nicolussi, K, Oppenheimer, C, Reinig, F, Salzer, MW, Seftigen, K, Stine, AR, Stoffel, M, St George, S, Tejedor, E, Trevino, A, Trouet, V, Wang, J, Wilson, R, Yang, B, Xu, G, Esper, JTree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
History
Publication title
Nature CommunicationsVolume
12Article number
3411Number
3411Pagination
1-10ISSN
2041-1723Department/School
School of Geography, Planning and Spatial SciencesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
© 2021. The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Repository Status
- Open