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Quantitative foresighting as a means of improving anticipatory scientific capacity and strategic planning


Hobday, AJ and Boschetti, F and Moeseneder, C and Stephenson, RL and Bessey, C and Bulman, CM and Contardo, S and Cvitanovic, C and Dambacher, JM and Dutra, LXC and Fulton, EA and Lenton, A and Little, LR and Mapstone, B and McDonald, KS and Plaganyi, EE and Pethybridge, H and Rothlisberg, P and Strzelecki, J and Thompson, PA and van Putten, I, Quantitative foresighting as a means of improving anticipatory scientific capacity and strategic planning, One Earth, 3, (5) pp. 631-644. ISSN 2590-3330 (2020) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Crown Copyright 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015


Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:foresighting, futures
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Climate change science
Research Field:Climate change science not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Adaptation to climate change
Objective Field:Adaptation to climate change not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Cvitanovic, C (Dr Christopher Cvitanovic)
UTAS Author:Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton)
UTAS Author:McDonald, KS (Ms Karlie McDonald)
ID Code:143236
Year Published:2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:5
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2021-03-06
Last Modified:2022-08-29

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