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Domino effect in marine accidents: Evidence from temporal association rules


Wang, L and Huang, R and Shi, W and Zhang, C, Domino effect in marine accidents: Evidence from temporal association rules, Transport Policy, 103 pp. 236-244. ISSN 0967-070X (2021) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.02.006


Marine accidents cause not only significant economic losses, but also severe environmental pollution and inestimable human casualties, which have become a worldwide concern. To better cope with this concern, this paper adopts temporal association rules (TARs) to mine and discover the domino effect in marine accidents. Using the dataset of 5754 marine domino accidents (MDAs) collected from the International Maritime Organization and IHS Markit Company, the main findings of this paper are as follows. First, 'hull damage' was found to be the most frequent accident in MDAs, and 'collision' was more likely to cause the damage in the whole hull. Second, 'oil spill' was most often observed as a final marine accident. Meanwhile, 'foundered' was more likely to cause 'oil spill' in both oil tanker and general cargo ship MDAs. Third, it is pointed out that most probable scenarios involved 'hull damage' as the basic accident which ended with 'foundered' and 'oil spill' as top accidents. These findings not only advance our knowledge of marine accidents from the perspective of the domino effect, but also provide insights into improving marine safety.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:domino effect, marine accidents, risk factors, machine learning, temporal association rules
Research Division:Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:Banking, finance and investment
Research Field:Finance
Objective Division:Economic Framework
Objective Group:Macroeconomics
Objective Field:Monetary policy
UTAS Author:Shi, W (Dr Wenming Shi)
ID Code:143010
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:8
Deposited By:Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:2021-02-20
Last Modified:2021-05-18

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