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Future risk for Southern Ocean ecosystem services under climate change


Cavanagh, RD and Melbourne-Thomas, J and Grant, SM and Barnes, DKA and Hughes, KA and Halfter, S and Meredith, MP and Murphy, EJ and Trebilco, R and Hill, SL, Future risk for Southern Ocean ecosystem services under climate change, Frontiers in Marine Science, 7 Article 615214. ISSN 2296-7745 (2021) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright 2021 Cavanagh, Melbourne-Thomas, Grant, Barnes, Hughes, Halfter, Meredith, Murphy, Trebilco and Hill. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).

DOI: doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.615214


The Southern Ocean supports ecosystem services that are important on a global scale. Climate change and human activities (tourism, fishing, and research) will affect both the demand for, and the provision of, these services into the future. Here we synthesize recent assessments of the current status and expected future climate-driven changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems and evaluate the potential consequences of these changes for the provision of ecosystem services. We explore in detail three key services (the ‘blue carbon’ pathway, the Antarctic krill fishery, and Antarctic tourism), tracing the consequences of climate change from physical drivers through biological impacts to the benefits to humans. We consider potential non-climatic drivers of change, current and future demands for the services, and the main global and regional policy frameworks that could be used to manage risks to the provision of these services in a changing climate. We also develop a formal representation of the network of interactions between the suite of potential drivers and the suite of services, providing a framework to capture the complexity of this network and its embedded feedback loops. Increased consideration of the linkages and feedbacks between drivers and ecosystem services will be required to underpin robust management responses into the future.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Southern Ocean, Antarctic krill, blue carbon, ecosystem services, climate change, Antarctic tourism, Antarctic Treaty System, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Ecological applications
Research Field:Ecosystem services (incl. pollination)
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments
Objective Field:Assessment and management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems
UTAS Author:Melbourne-Thomas, J (Dr Jessica Melbourne-Thomas)
UTAS Author:Halfter, S (Ms Svenja Halfter)
UTAS Author:Trebilco, R (Dr Rowan Trebilco)
ID Code:142467
Year Published:2021
Web of Science® Times Cited:35
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2021-01-19
Last Modified:2021-09-22
Downloads:25 View Download Statistics

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