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A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system


Emodi, NV and Chaiechi, T and Rabiul Alam Beg, ABM, A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system, Energy Policy, 128 pp. 329-346. ISSN 0301-4215 (2019) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright 2019 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.011


This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 20102050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 4953% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV& C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate variability and change, Australia, LEAP, energy policies, emission reduction, scenario analysis
Research Division:Economics
Research Group:Applied economics
Research Field:Environment and resource economics
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate change models
UTAS Author:Emodi, NV (Mr Nnaemeka Emodi)
ID Code:141880
Year Published:2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:7
Deposited By:Sociology and Criminology
Deposited On:2020-12-01
Last Modified:2021-02-10

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