This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010–2050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49–53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV& C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	climate variability and change, Australia, LEAP, energy policies, emission reduction, scenario analysis
Research Division:	Economics
Research Group:	Applied economics
Research Field:	Environment and resource economics
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate change models
UTAS Author:	Emodi, NV (Mr Nnaemeka Emodi)
ID Code:	141880
Year Published:	2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:	6
Deposited By:	Sociology and Criminology
Deposited On:	2020-12-01
Last Modified:	2021-02-10
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