Reactive and Proactive Approaches: Tutorials and Example

Bayesian inference-based dynamic risk assessment (BIDRA) and the risk barometer represent two different approaches that may be adopted for dynamic evaluation of accident frequency. BIDRA is a methodology for reactive risk assessment based on Bayesian inference, whereas the risk barometer is based on real-time indicator monitoring aiming to support proactive assessment of risk. This chapter illustrates two tutorials for the application of the BIDRA and risk barometer techniques. Moreover, application to the same representative case is performed by simulating the inputs for the methodologies: past near misses and accidents for BIDRA, and technical, operational, and organizational indicator trends for the risk barometer. This example aims to highlight similarities and differences and provides support for the selection of methods.