This paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one-month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non-OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Research Division:	Economics
Research Group:	Applied economics
Research Field:	International economics
Objective Division:	Economic Framework
Objective Group:	Macroeconomics
Objective Field:	Macroeconomics not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:	Vespignani, J (Associate Professor Joaquin Vespignani)
ID Code:	140122
Year Published:	2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:	14
Deposited By:	Economics and Finance
Deposited On:	2020-07-28
Last Modified:	2020-08-12
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