In this study, the contribution of atmospheric climate variables to the prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been investigated. Statistical forecast models are developed through generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) for tropical cyclone trajectories over the NIO using atmospheric climate variables as predictors. TC from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and sets of climate predictor data were analysed for a period of 35-year (1979-2013). The velocity field is predicted by fitting GAM in each month and season. Hindcast validation method is applied to assess the reliability of the model. The skill of the GAM model is compared with GLM and found to be more successful in forecasting TC movement over the NIO region.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	cyclone movement, atmospheric climate variables, generalised additive model, generalised linear model, North Indian Ocean
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Oceanography
Research Field:	Physical oceanography
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate change models
UTAS Author:	Wahiduzzaman, M (Mr Mohammad Wahiduzzaman)
ID Code:	139710
Year Published:	2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:	8
Deposited By:	Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:	2020-06-29
Last Modified:	2021-04-28
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