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Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models
Citation
Wahiduzzaman, M and Yeasmin, A and Luo, J-J, Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models, Atmospheric Research, 245 Article 105089. ISSN 0169-8095 (2020) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105089
Abstract
In this study, the contribution of atmospheric climate variables to the prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been investigated. Statistical forecast models are developed through generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) for tropical cyclone trajectories over the NIO using atmospheric climate variables as predictors. TC from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and sets of climate predictor data were analysed for a period of 35-year (1979-2013). The velocity field is predicted by fitting GAM in each month and season. Hindcast validation method is applied to assess the reliability of the model. The skill of the GAM model is compared with GLM and found to be more successful in forecasting TC movement over the NIO region.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | cyclone movement, atmospheric climate variables, generalised additive model, generalised linear model, North Indian Ocean |
Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
Research Group: | Oceanography |
Research Field: | Physical oceanography |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
Objective Field: | Climate change models |
UTAS Author: | Wahiduzzaman, M (Mr Mohammad Wahiduzzaman) |
ID Code: | 139710 |
Year Published: | 2020 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 8 |
Deposited By: | Oceans and Cryosphere |
Deposited On: | 2020-06-29 |
Last Modified: | 2021-04-28 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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