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Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 15:41 authored by Wahiduzzaman, M, Yeasmin, A, Luo, J-JIn this study, the contribution of atmospheric climate variables to the prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been investigated. Statistical forecast models are developed through generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) for tropical cyclone trajectories over the NIO using atmospheric climate variables as predictors. TC from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and sets of climate predictor data were analysed for a period of 35-year (1979-2013). The velocity field is predicted by fitting GAM in each month and season. Hindcast validation method is applied to assess the reliability of the model. The skill of the GAM model is compared with GLM and found to be more successful in forecasting TC movement over the NIO region.
History
Publication title
Atmospheric ResearchVolume
245Article number
105089Number
105089Pagination
1-13ISSN
0169-8095Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Elsevier Science IncPlace of publication
360 Park Ave South, New York, USA, Ny, 10010-1710Rights statement
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Repository Status
- Restricted