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Remote forcing of Tasman Sea marine heatwaves

Citation

Li, Z and Holbrook, NJ and Zhang, X and Oliver, ECJ and Cougnon, EA, Remote forcing of Tasman Sea marine heatwaves, Journal of Climate, 33, (12) pp. 5337-5354. ISSN 0894-8755 (2020) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society

DOI: doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0641.1

Abstract

Recent marine heatwave (MHW) events in the Tasman Sea have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystems, fisheries, and aquaculture off Tasmania’s east coast. However, our understanding of the large-scale drivers (forcing) and potential predictability of MHW events in this region off southeast Australia is still in its infancy. Here, we investigate the role of oceanic Rossby waves forced in the interior South Pacific on observed MHW occurrences off southeast Australia from 1994 to 2016, including the extreme 2015/16 MHW event. First, we used an upper-ocean heat budget analysis to show that 51% of these historical Tasman Sea MHWs were primarily due to increased East Australian Current (EAC) Extension poleward transports through the region. Second, we used lagged correlation analysis to empirically connect the EAC Extension intensification to incoming westward-propagating sea surface height (SSH) anomalies from the interior South Pacific. Third, we dynamically analyzed these SSH anomalies using simple process-based baroclinic and barotropic Rossby wave models forced by wind stress curl changes across the South Pacific. Finally, we show that associated monthly SSH changes around New Zealand may be a useful index of western Tasman Sea MHW predictability, with a lead time of 2–3 years. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that there is potential predictability of advection-dominated MHW event likelihoods in the EAC Extension region up to several years in advance, due to the deterministic contribution from baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves in modulating the EAC Extension transports.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:remote forcing, Tasman Sea, marine heatwaves
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Li, Z (Ms Zeya Li)
UTAS Author:Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook)
UTAS Author:Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
UTAS Author:Cougnon, EA (Dr Eva Cougnon)
ID Code:139174
Year Published:2020
Web of Science® Times Cited:3
Deposited By:Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:2020-05-29
Last Modified:2021-04-28
Downloads:0

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