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Circumpolar projections of Antarctic krill growth potential

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Antarctic krill is a key species of important Southern Ocean food webs, yet how changes in ocean temperature and primary production may impact their habitat quality remains poorly understood. We provide a circumpolar assessment of the robustness of krill growth habitat to climate change by coupling an empirical krill growth model with projections from a weighted subset of IPCC Earth system models. We find that 85% of the study area experienced only a moderate change in relative gross growth potential (± 20%) by 2100. However, a temporal shift in seasonal timings of habitat quality may cause disjunctions between krill’s biological timings and the future environment. Regions likely to experience habitat quality decline or retreat are concentrated near the northern limits of krill distribution and in the Amundsen–Bellingshausen seas region during autumn, meaning habitat will likely shift to higher latitudes in these areas.

Funding

Australian Research Council

History

Publication title

Nature Climate Change

Volume

10

Issue

6

Pagination

568-575

ISSN

1758-678X

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2020 the authors

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Biodiversity in Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments; Effects of climate change on Antarctic and sub-Antarctic environments (excl. social impacts)