Social-ecological predictors of physical activity patterns: a longitudinal study of women from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas

Limited longitudinal evidence of the predictors of physical activity (PA) patterns over time exists, particularly among high-risk groups such as women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. This study aimed to: 1) describe leisure-time PA (LTPA) and transport-related PA (TRPA) patterns over time; and 2) identify individual, social and physical environmental predictors of LTPA and TRPA patterns over five years. Baseline (2007–08) data were collected and analysed (2016–18) from n = 4349 women (18–46 years) from disadvantaged areas of Victoria, Australia. Three- and five-year follow-up data were collected in 2010–11 (n = 1912) and 2012 (n = 1560). LTPA and TRPA were self-reported using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and patterns categorised as consistently low, persistently increasing, persistently decreasing, or inconsistent. Compared to a consistently low LTPA pattern, greater family support predicted both persistent decreases (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.36) and persistent increases (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04–1.32) in LTPA, while access to childcare predicted inconsistent LTPA patterns (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.03–2.65). For both LTPA and TRPA, PA enjoyment predicted persistent increases (LTPA: OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02–1.10; TRPA: OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.07), persistent decreases (LTPA: OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.08; TRPA OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99–1.08), and inconsistent patterns (LTPA: OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.07; TRPA: OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.06). Although directionality was inconsistent, and the magnitude of effects were small, PA enjoyment, family social support for PA and access to childcare warrant further investigation and consideration as potentially key factors impacting PA patterns among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.