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Historical and current approaches to decompose uncertainty in crop model predictions

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-24, 19:45 authored by Chapagain, R, Jonathan Ojeda, Caroline MohammedCaroline Mohammed, Brown, J, Tomas Remenyi, Harris, R
Cropping systems models have become an essential tool to simulate crop growth and yield at different scales to produce actionable information related to climate change, food security, land use and market dynamics (e.g. Waha et al., 2015; Wallach et al., 2016; Porwollik et al., 2017). Despite their increased usage and importance, various sources of uncertainty exist in the modelling process due to the “impossibility to model the cropping system with complete determinism” (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2017). In this article, by uncertainty we mean “any departure from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism” (Walker et al., 2003). Uncertainty is prevalent in every step of crop modelling, starting from the field observations used for model development to value of inputs and parameters to the structure and design of model (Fig. 1).

Funding

Universities Australia / Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (German Academic Exchange Service)

History

Publication title

iCROPM2020 Book of Abstracts

Pagination

555-556

Department/School

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)

Event title

Second International Crop Modelling Symposium (iCROPM 2020)

Event Venue

Montpellier, France

Date of Event (Start Date)

2020-02-03

Date of Event (End Date)

2020-02-05

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate change models; Hardwood plantations; Plant extract crops

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    University Of Tasmania

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