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Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 11:06 authored by Wahiduzzaman, M, Yeasmin, A
This paper investigates the forecast potential of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall probabilities over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries using ocean-climate predictor variables in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the landfall probabilities for a period of 35 years of TC observations (1979–2013) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the predictor variables include sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index and ocean heat content. Poisson regression was found skilful in hindcasting of tropical cyclone landfall frequency for the NIO region with a correlation coefficient in the forecasted hindcast time series of 0.65 and 31% improvement above climatology. In the present study, genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach with a Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. This GAM model that is previously demonstrated very skilful to simulate TC landfall across the NIO rim countries by Wahiduzzaman et al., 2017, Wahiduzzaman et al., 2019 deems skilful for this study.

History

Publication title

Atmospheric Research

Volume

227

Pagination

89-100

ISSN

0169-8095

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Elsevier Science Inc

Place of publication

360 Park Ave South, New York, USA, Ny, 10010-1710

Rights statement

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Atmospheric processes and dynamics

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