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Prediction of adult class II/III obesity from childhood BMI: the i3C consortium


Woo, JG and Zhang, N and Fenchel, M and Jacobs Jr, DR and Hu, T and Urbina, EM and Burns, TL and Raitakari, O and Steinberger, J and Bazzano, L and Prineas, RJ and Jaquish, C and Juonala, M and Ryder, JR and Daniels, SR and Sinaiko, A and Dwyer, T and Venn, A, Prediction of adult class II/III obesity from childhood BMI: the i3C consortium, International Journal of Obesity pp. 1-9. ISSN 0307-0565 (2019) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2019 The Authors, under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

DOI: doi:10.1038/s41366-019-0461-6


Background and Objectives: Adult class II/III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) has significant adverse health outcomes. Early prevention and treatment are critical, but prospective childhood risk estimates are lacking. This study aimed to define the prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity, using childhood BMI.

Methods: Children ages 3-19 years enrolled in cohorts of the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) consortium with measured BMI assessments in childhood and adulthood were included. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity was modeled based on childhood age, sex, race, and BMI.

Results: A total of 12,142 individuals (44% male, 85% white) were assessed at median age 14 [Interquartile range, IQR: 11, 16] and 33 [28, 39] years. Class II/III adult obesity developed in 6% of children with normal weight; 29% of children with overweight; 56% of children with obesity; and 80% of children with severe obesity. However, 38% of the 1440 adults with class II/III obesity (553/1440) were normal weight as children. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity varied by age, sex, and race within childhood weight status classifications, and is notably higher for girls, black participants, and those in the United States. The risk of class II/III obesity increased with older adult age.

Conclusions: Children with obesity or severe obesity have a substantial risk of adult class II/III obesity, and observed prospective risk estimates are now presented by age, sex, race, and childhood BMI. Clinical monitoring of children's BMI for adult class II/III obesity risk may be especially important for females and black Americans.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Biomedical and Clinical Sciences
Research Group:Paediatrics
Research Field:Paediatrics not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Public health (excl. specific population health)
Objective Field:Preventive medicine
UTAS Author:Dwyer, T (Professor Terry Dwyer)
UTAS Author:Venn, A (Professor Alison Venn)
ID Code:137516
Year Published:2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:25
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2020-02-18
Last Modified:2022-08-25

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