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Characterizing the spatial distribution and variation of species communities and validating these characteristics with data from the field are key elements for an ecosystem‐based approach to management. However, models of species distributions that yield community structure are usually not linked to models of community dynamics, constraining understanding and management of the ecosystem, particularly in data‐poor regions. Here we use a qualitative network model to predict changes in Antarctic benthic community structure between major marine habitats characterized largely by seafloor depth and slope, and use multivariate mixture models of species distributions to validate the community dynamics. We then assess how future increases in primary production associated with anticipated loss of sea‐ice may affect the ecosystem. Our study shows how both spatial and structural features of ecosystems in data‐poor regions can be analyzed and possible futures assessed, with direct relevance for ecosystem‐based management.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Antarctica, continental shelf, deep sea, ecosystem dynamic, ecosystem structure, qualitative network model, Southern Ocean, spatial model, species archetype model
Research Division:	Environmental Sciences
Research Group:	Ecological applications
Research Field:	Ecosystem function
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Effects of climate change on Antarctic and sub-Antarctic environments (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Jansen, J (Dr Jan Jansen)
UTAS Author:	Hill, NA (Dr Nicole Hill)
UTAS Author:	Johnson, CR (Professor Craig Johnson)
ID Code:	137351
Year Published:	2020 (online first 2019)
Web of Science® Times Cited:	2
Deposited By:	Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:	2020-02-11
Last Modified:	2020-08-13
Downloads:	21 View Download Statistics