The impact of economic, social and environmental factors on trip satisfaction and the likelihood of visitors returning

Tourism is vital to the economy of many regions; however visitor numbers in some are stagnating. Using a novel approach, this case study of the Great Barrier Reef explores and quantifies risks to visitor numbers, utilising tourist survey data supplemented by objective data from secondary sources. Economic, social and environmental factors affecting trip satisfaction are identified, which itself is found to affect the likelihood of a tourist returning; the impact of changes on trip satisfaction and on repeat visits is then estimated. Linkages between tourism and other industries are clearly demonstrated; increased construction work, decreased water clarity and decreased perceptions of tourist safety are all estimated to significantly reduce likelihood of repeat visits and hence impact tourist revenues, placing the financial viability of the industry at risk. Future development within the region should be evaluated holistically, rather than industries such as tourism, construction, agriculture etc. each being developed in isolation.