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Virtual Economic Experiments

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posted on 2023-05-24, 06:58 authored by Chesney, T, Swee-Hoon ChuahSwee-Hoon Chuah, Hoffmann, R, Hui, W, Larner, J
© 2018, © 2018 The Institute of Behavioral Finance. Financial decision makers (lenders, insurers, advisees) often need to estimate how well others make decisions. Is knowledge a blessing or a curse when forecasting others' forecast accuracy? The authors show that this depends on its type. Within a single experimental setting, they identify and test 4 distinct information types that have different effects on forecast accuracy. First, the authors revisit the well-known “curse of knowledge” and show that it may have resulted from entirely arbitrary, uninformative anchors. Second, we show that in contrast, genuinely informative cues purged of anchoring potential enhance estimation accuracy. Third, richer, more detailed financial information has no effect even for participants better able to interpret it. Fourth, domain experts do not overimpute others' forecast ability. The authors conclude that in financial settings knowledge may be a blessing or a curse, or have no effect depending on its type.

History

Publication title

Social Interactions in Virtual Worlds

Editors

K Lakkaraju, G Sukthankar, RT Wigand

Pagination

218-250

ISBN

9781316422823

Department/School

TSBE

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Extent

14

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Preference, behaviour and welfare

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