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Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients


Burrows, MT and Bates, AE and Costello, MJ and Edwards, M and Edgar, GJ and Fox, CJ and Halpern, BS and Hiddink, JG and Pinsky, ML and Batt, RD and Garcia Molinos, J and Payne, BL and Schoeman, DS and Stuart-Smith, RD and Poloczanska, ES, Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients, Nature Climate Change, 9, (12) pp. 959-963. ISSN 1758-678X (2019) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5


As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity. However, different responses of species to warming and changed species interactions make predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance a challenge. Here, we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species. Regions with stable temperatures (for example, the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico) show little change in dominance structure, while areas with warming (for example, the North Atlantic) see strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance. Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and a narrower range of thermal tolerance showed greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. The composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper, rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants. Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggest a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, marine life, fisheries, community temperature index
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Ecology
Research Field:Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology)
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems
UTAS Author:Edgar, GJ (Professor Graham Edgar)
UTAS Author:Stuart-Smith, RD (Dr Rick Stuart-Smith)
ID Code:136468
Year Published:2019
Funding Support:Australian Research Council (DP170104240)
Web of Science® Times Cited:80
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2019-12-23
Last Modified:2022-08-20

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