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Assessing theoretical conclusions with blinded inference to investigate a potential inference crisis

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 06:56 authored by Starns, JJ, Cataldo, AM, Rotello, CM, Annis, J, Aschenbrenner, A, Broder, A, Cox, G, Criss, A, Curl, RA, Dobbins, IG, Dunn, J, Enam, T, Evans, NJ, Farrell, S, Fraundorf, SH, Gronlund, SD, Heathcote, A, Heck, DW, Hicks, JL, Huff, MJ, Kellen, D, Key, KN, Kilic, A, Klauer, KC, Kraemer, KR, Leite, FP, Lloyd, ME, Malejka, S, Mason, A, McAdoo, RM, McDonough, IM, Michael, RB, Mickes, L, Mizrack, E, Morgan, DP, Mueller, ST, Osth, A, Reynolds, A, Seale-Carlisle, TM, Singmann, H, Sloane, JF, Smith, AM, Tillman, G, van Ravenzwaaij, D, Weidemann, CT, Wells, L, White, CN, J Wilson
Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on our ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities based on empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both a) discovering valid, replicable data patterns, and b) accurately 25 interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results 30 reveal substantial variability in expert judgements on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis.

History

Publication title

Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

Issue

4

Pagination

335-349

ISSN

2515-2459

Department/School

School of Psychological Sciences

Publisher

Sage Publications, Inc.

Place of publication

United States

Rights statement

© The Author(s) 2019

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Expanding knowledge in psychology

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