Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	container shipping operational risk, risk analysis, Bayesian network, Delphi system
Research Division:	Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:	Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Research Field:	Maritime transportation and freight services
Objective Division:	Transport
Objective Group:	Water transport
Objective Field:	International sea freight transport (excl. live animals, food products and liquefied gas)
UTAS Author:	Nguyen, S (Mr Son Nguyen)
UTAS Author:	Chen, PS-L (Associate Professor Peggy Chen)
UTAS Author:	Du, Y (Dr Bill Du)
UTAS Author:	Shi, W (Dr Wenming Shi)
ID Code:	134638
Year Published:	2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:	29
Deposited By:	Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:	2019-08-23
Last Modified:	2019-09-23
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