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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

Citation

Nguyen, S and Chen, PS-L and Du, Y and Shi, W, A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 129 pp. 203-227. ISSN 1366-5545 (2019) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2019 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002

Abstract

Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:container shipping operational risk, risk analysis, Bayesian network, Delphi system
Research Division:Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Research Group:Transportation and Freight Services
Research Field:Transportation and Freight Services not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water Transport
Objective Field:International Sea Freight Transport (excl. Live Animal Transport)
UTAS Author:Nguyen, S (Mr Son Nguyen)
UTAS Author:Chen, PS-L (Associate Professor Peggy Chen)
UTAS Author:Du, Y (Dr Bill Du)
UTAS Author:Shi, W (Dr Wenming Shi)
ID Code:134638
Year Published:2019
Deposited By:Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:2019-08-23
Last Modified:2019-09-23
Downloads:0

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