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Modulation of wet-season rainfall over Iran by the Madden– Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nińo–Southern Oscillation


Pourasghar, F and Oliver, ECJ and Holbrook, NJ, Modulation of wet-season rainfall over Iran by the Madden- Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, International Journal of Climatology, 39, (10) pp. 4029-4040. ISSN 0899-8418 (2019) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2019 Royal Meteorological Society

DOI: doi:10.1002/joc.6057


The intra-seasonal variation of precipitation over Iran is examined in terms of the combined effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nińo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using daily observations during the wet season (October–May) from 1961 to 2015. We have examined how the probability of daily rainfall above the upper tercile varies across MJO phases during positive and negative IOD and ENSO states. The results indicate that the response of Iran’s wet-season rainfall to the MJO is affected more by large-scale atmospheric variations associated with the IOD than by ENSO. The negative (positive) IOD strengthens (suppresses) the MJO–rainfall relationship in the wet and dry MJO phases. The variation in the atmospheric variables (relative humidity and vertical velocity) indicates more (less) humidity and upwards (downwards) motion which increases (decreases) precipitation in wet (dry) MJO phases during the negative IOD. The rainfall relationship with the MJO during the negative IOD is statistically significant, while the relationship during the positive IOD is weak; and no significant relationship is found during either phase of ENSO.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Indian Ocean Dipole, intra-seasonal variability, Madden–Julian Oscillation, rainfall probability
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
UTAS Author:Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook)
ID Code:133415
Year Published:2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:6
Deposited By:Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:2019-06-27
Last Modified:2020-07-17

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