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Review of the stratigraphic record of mangrove ecosystems during sea-level changes of the Holocene shows that low islands will be particularly vulnerable to the loss of mangrove ecosystems during the rises of relative sea-level projected for the next 50 years. Mangrove ecosystems in these locations could keep up with a sea-level rise of up to 8-9 cm/100 years, but at rates of over 12 cm/100 years could not persist. This is due to low rates of sediment accumulation with limited sources from outside the mangrove zone, such as from rivers or soil erosion sources. Other factors contributing to mangrove persistence are the primary production rate of forests shoreline erosion due to deeper and more turbulent water and the frequency and intensity of tropical storms.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	mangrove peat, refuge mode, expansive mode
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Research Field:	Quaternary environments
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Effects of climate change on the South Pacific (excl. Australia and New Zealand) (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Ellison, JC (Associate Professor Joanna Ellison)
ID Code:	132754
Year Published:	1991
Web of Science® Times Cited:	192
Deposited By:	Geography and Spatial Science
Deposited On:	2019-05-20
Last Modified:	2019-08-23
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