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The effects of climate change have been much speculated on in the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest in one of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularly so given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, and the degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predicting precipitation and temperature for the next few decades as well as developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining these together, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a large food producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years, an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to change to adapt for the effects of climate change. It is found that sustainable crop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigated agriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettest years.

Item Type:	Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:	crop planning, climate change, water management, optimisation, differential evolution
Research Division:	Information and Computing Sciences
Research Group:	Machine learning
Research Field:	Neural networks
Objective Division:	Plant Production and Plant Primary Products
Objective Group:	Horticultural crops
Objective Field:	Horticultural crops not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:	Montgomery, J (Dr James Montgomery)
ID Code:	132706
Year Published:	2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:	1
Deposited By:	Information and Communication Technology
Deposited On:	2019-05-17
Last Modified:	2022-05-24
Downloads:	14 View Download Statistics